Media release
2026 estimate of people who have overstayed their visa released
Published
15 September 2026
Immigration New Zealand (INZ) has today released its 2026 estimate of the number of people currently in New Zealand who have overstayed their visa.
The latest estimate shows that, as at 1 July 2026, there were approximately 19,153 people in New Zealand who had overstayed their visa.
In 2025, INZ introduced updated methodology to provide a more accurate estimate of the number of people who have overstayed their visa. As part of INZ's process to update the estimate annually, refinements have been made to improve the accuracy, consistency and completeness of the estimate. This includes removing Exemption NZeTA holders and Air Crew NZeTA holders because these cohorts align with visa categories already excluded under the methodology.
Because of these refinements, the 2026 estimate represents a decrease of around 8.7 percent from last year’s estimate of 20,979 people.
These refinements do not represent a change to the underlying approach used to produce the estimate. Rather, they apply existing exclusion criteria more consistently and reduce the likelihood of individuals being incorrectly included in the estimate. The reduction in the estimated population of people who have overstayed their visa since 2025 is partly due to these refinements, which have improved the accuracy of the estimate.
Steve Watson, General Manager Immigration Compliance and Investigations, says the estimate confirms that the number of people who overstay their visa remains very small when compared with the millions of lawful temporary migrants who travel to New Zealand each year.
"Each year, INZ processes around 1 million visa applications and 1.6 million New Zealand Electronic Travel Authority requests and sees around 3.6 million non-New Zealand citizens arrive in New Zealand," Mr Watson says.
"The vast majority of people who come to New Zealand to visit, work or study comply with their visa conditions and either leave before their visa expires or obtain a further visa to remain lawfully in New Zealand.”
Between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2026, there were around 5 million temporary visa arrivals to New Zealand. Of these, 6,559 individuals were recorded as having overstayed their visa as of 1 July 2026, representing just 0.13 percent of temporary visa arrivals over the 3-year period.
The estimate is a statistical model used alongside other systems and tools to support risk management, operational planning and policy development. It is not used to identify specific individuals.
Note
The methodology was refined in 2026. Without this change, and using the same methodology as in 2025, this year's estimate would have been 20,994, which is only 15 more than the previous year.
Top 10 nationalities
| Top 10 | Nationality | Estimate* |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 2,694 |
| 2 | Tonga | 2,541 |
| 3 | United States of America | 1,981 |
| 4 | India | 1,522 |
| 5 | Samoa | 1,462 |
| 6 | Great Britain | 1,117 |
| 7 | Philippines | 898 |
| 8 | Malaysia | 574 |
| 9 | Vietnam | 538 |
| 10 | Fiji | 512 |
| 11 | Other | 5,314 |
| Total | - | 19,153* |
*The estimate is based on approximately 30 years of immigration and border movement data, reflecting the period since INZ introduced electronic records.
| Nationality | Total temporary visa arrivals 1/7/2023 to 30/6/2026 | Individuals who arrived between 1/7/2023 and 30/6/2026 and were recorded as having overstayed their visas as of 1/7/2026 | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States of America | 967,633 | 925 | 0.10% |
| Tonga | 31,054 | 666 | 2.14% |
| China | 761,140 | 653 | 0.09% |
| Great Britain | 456,710 | 580 | 0.13% |
| India | 303,457 | 518 | 0.17% |
| Samoa | 29,910 | 375 | 1.25% |
| Fiji | 66,342 | 222 | 0.33% |
| Philippines | 125,118 | 179 | 0.14% |
| Malaysia | 100,196 | 179 | 0.18% |
| Vietnam | 27,336 | 167 | 0.61% |
| Other | 2,177,182 | 2,095 | 0.10% |
| Total | 5,046,078 | 6,559 | 0.13% |
The top 10 nationalities of people who have overstayed their visas as of 1 July 2026 account for 72.3% of the total estimate.
A snapshot of the percentage of overstaying compared to temporary visa arrivals for the period 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2026, shows that overall, the percentage of overstaying is less than 0.13% of those who arrived on temporary visas for that same 3-year period.